The Met Office has predicted that the average global temperature in 2024 could rise higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, setting an unwanted "milestone in climate history".
This could be the first time it will happen in modern history, and can be seen as a concern to many as limiting warming to 1.5C is a key goal of the Paris Agreement.
Temperature fluctuates naturally and it is likely that in the years immediately after 2024 the annual average will fall below 1.5C again.
The Met Office believe 2024 will finish with an average temperature between 1.34C and 1.58C above the period between 1850-1900.
This would be the 11th year in a row that temperatures will have exceeded 1C.
2024 could beat 2023 as hottest year on record
In terms of this year, 2023 is already being predicted to be the hottest year currently on record, with an average of 1.2C above pre-industrial levels.
Therefore, 2024 could be very likely to beat that with the way forecasts have been made.
Dr Nick Dunstone, of the Met Office, said: “The forecast is in line with the ongoing global warming trend of 0.2C per decade and is boosted by a significant El Nino event.
“Hence, we expect two new global temperature record-breaking years in succession and, for the first time, we are forecasting a reasonable chance of a year temporarily exceeding 1.5C.
“It’s important to recognise that a temporary exceedance of 1.5C won’t mean a breach of the Paris Agreement. But the first year above 1.5C would certainly be a milestone in climate history.”
The Met Office’s Professor Adam Scaife said: “The main driver for record-breaking temperatures is the ongoing human-induced warming since the start of the industrial revolution.
“With a month to go, 2023 is almost certain to be the warmest year on record, exceeding the current record set in 2016 which was also boosted by an El Nino event.
“In addition to the El Nino event, we have anomalous high temperatures in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, and, together with climate change, these factors account for the new global temperature extremes.”
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